Application of Boiling Frog Theory to Covid-19 コロナとゆでガエル理論

Japanese follows English.　英語の後に日本語が続きます。

He doesn't know but is being boiled to death...

The boiling frog is a fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly. Source: Wikipedia 

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The Japanese government announced on March 20 to partially lift a ban on schools and public events it had imposed on February 25 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Now, municipals and event organizers are allowed to decide themselves whether to reopen schools and hold events.

The government based this decision on "their understanding" that generally, the situation has been successfully contained given "the low numbers of infections and deaths in Japan," i.e., 950 and 33 respectively as of March 20*. However, there are reasons behind these figures.
* Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan

First, the number of coronaviurs tests done so far in Japan is far less than other countries as shown in the table below. It's natural that Japan has fewer cases. The fewer tests, the fewer infections found.

Total COVID-tests performed by country

Country	No. of tests performed
Japan	14,901 (Mar 19)
South Korea	316,664 (Mar 20)
Italy	206,886 (Mar 20)
Germany	167,000 (Mar 15)
Australia	113,615 (Mar 20)
Canada	113,121 (Mar 20)
United States	103,945 (Mar 19)
United Kingdom	64,621 (Mar 19)
France	36,747 (Mar 15)

Source: Our World in Data

Secondly, Japan does not perform the tests for those who died of pneumonia. This means that some coronavirus deaths are not counted as such but are included in deaths of pneumonia unrelated to the virus.

However, nobody seems to care about this. Why? This is where the boiling frog theory comes into play.

The Japanese government has currently applied the boiling frog theory to the real world to avoid its responsibility. The administration has "requested" school closures and event cancellations but has not made any decisions itself, leaving the most important role to each municipality and event organizer. This also satisfies people's need for something they can use as an excuse to avoid their own responsibility to think themselves about how to protect their lives. Now, the government and public of Japan are all frogs in tepid water being brought to a boil like the wartime period in which all the Japanese people stopped thinking and did what they were told to do, resulting in many lives lost... 

Or Japan may believe in another theory. The kamikaze theory that divine wind would blow in hard times to save Japan as it did in 13th century by destroying the Mongolian fleet....

Japan is now getting to a normal life in lukewarm water. People are gathering at stadiums, theaters and amusement parks, and under cherry blossoms, which horrifies me...

For another application of the boiling frog theory, read this.

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コロナウィルスの感染者と死者の数、日本は少ないです。でもそれって当たり前。検査しなければ感染者は見つかりません。コロナ肺炎で死んだ人がコロナ以外の肺炎の死者に紛れてしまっている可能性も示唆されています。

で思ったんです。もしかして日本政府、「ゆでガエル理論」を実践している？

ゆでガエル理論とは「カエルはいきなり熱湯に入れると驚いて逃げ出すが、常温の水に入れて徐々に水温を上げていくと逃げ出すタイミングを失い、最後には死んでしまう」という理論。政府も国民も責任を伴う決断を避けるため、耳障りのいい情報を信じて、 のんびりオーバーシュート、そして医療崩壊に自ら向かっている気がしてなりません。

いやいや、もしかしたら神風を待っている？ 大勢の人が K-1、宝塚、としまえん、お花見に「のほほん」と集まっている様子を見るとぞっとします😱😠。

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